One of the biases that has been proposed by Kahneman and Tversky and researched a great deal is the Availability bias. What is the Availability bias? How might it play a role in the decision in assignmnt two? Consider that the estimated probabilities for both of the High NPV future states are relatively high (0.50 and 0.75). How could the Availability bias be at work here? How could using objective data analysis like frequency distributions mitigate the effect of the Availability bias?
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Download and read this paper on subjective probabilities in risk decisions. This paper will be useful for the discussion questions in Module 2, 3, and 4: Subjective Assessments of Risk and Uncertainty
Get this journal article from the library. It is lengthy, but you only need to read Section 1.1, pp. 3-5. This section provides a very good review of three major biases that have been studied by the famous team of Kahneman and Tversky.
Laibson, D., & Zeckhauser, R. (1998). Amos Tversky and the ascent of behavioral economics.Journal of Risk & Uncertainty. Feb1998, Vol. 16 Issue 1, p7-47. 41p. Retrieved from Business Source Complete (EBSCO) in the Trident Online Library.
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